Mathematical Formula Developed to Detect Adverse Drug Effects

A team of scientists at Children’s Hospital Boston has created a mathematical model to predict adverse drug effects in newly-created prescription drugs, according to US News. The model was able to correctly predict almost half of the adverse drug effects (ADEs) that would occur in 809 new prescription drugs. If truly successful, this predictive model would represent a significant breakthrough for the industry. The current system of ensuring the safety of prescription drugs is extremely costly, time-consuming, and inexact. The model intends to correctly predict the adverse drug effects before they are seen in patients, transforming the role of researchers from a detection role to a prediction one.

We think the approach holds real promise for strengthening efforts to identify and manage drug risks.

The study was led by Aurel Cami, PhD, and Ben Reis, PhD, members of the Children’s Hospital Boston Informatics Program. The scientists reportedly used pharmacological network models, which is a mathematical model that runs calculations based on data available to the public. The scientists entered 809 prescription drugs and 852 adverse effects from 2005 through the mathematical network model. They then compared these results to those that had been discovered in patients by 2010, and found that the model correctly predicted 42% of them. In addition, the model correctly predicted 95% of adverse effects that would not be associated with each drug.

There are certainly no guarantees for a scientific method of adverse drug effect prediction like this one, but it does provide hope for the future of prescription drugs. Currently, many adverse effects are only discovered after post-market studies or after a multitude of patients reporting that side effect. Aurel Cami, PhD was quoted: “We think the approach holds real promise for strengthening efforts to identify and manage drug risks by helping drug safety practitioners predict high likelihood events and guide efforts to understand, avoid, and alleviate those events before they start appearing in patients. We’re now working to extend these methods to incorporate additional sources of drug safety data and to promote their adoption in clinical drug safety practice.”

Since it is currently quite difficult to predict the possible negative side effects of prescription drugs, many can pose serious health risks for patients. Current examples of this are the serious side effects reported among patients taking drugs such as Actos, Fosamax, Propecia, Lexapro, Topamax, and Zoloft. If you have experienced adverse drug effects from the aforementioned drugs or any other, contact a defective drug attorney by completing the form on the right to see if you might be eligible to pursue compensation.